Someone get Stephen Harper a calendar and map.

Yesterday's budget compromise on Kyoto provisions notwithstanding, The Conservatives have been huffing and puffing about bringing down Paul Martin's government over the details of the Gomery Inquiry. The parties have been put on alert for a spring election, and Stephen Harper hopes to grab the keys to 24 Sussex Drive.

What appears to be missing from the Conservative strategy is that in the province where the Conservatives draw about a quarter of their caucus, British Columbia, a provincial election is already scheduled for Tuesday, May 17. If the next federal election is as close as last year's, BC could emerge as the battleground province. Harper can't afford the prospect of his western shock troops trying to cement their hold over Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals while he's trying to cement a hold on the country.

The BC NDP rode a split on the right between Social Credit and the BC Liberals to a landslide victory in 1991. A concurrent federal election could have the same impact: splitting the attentions of right wingers between campaigns, and splitting the BC Liberals between its dwindling Liberal and growing Conservative factions. New Democrats could easily choose to leave the province's 5 MPs to their own devices and focus on the bigger prize in Victoria.

Of course it remains to be seen how the inquiry will play out once the publication ban is lifted, but this page isn't one to be left out when there's idle speculation going on...

UPDATE: It looks like the Conservatives are out of breath....for now.