After Tuesday night's commanding victory for Barack Obama in North Carolina and the close finish in Indiana, Hillary Clinton's bid for the Democratic Presidential nomination is on life support. However, that isn't stopping the former First Lady from continuing to beat her breast like she's giving CPR to herself. Clinton has neither the remaining delegates in play or projected shift in the popular vote to lay claim to the nomination, so what magic formula can she possibly employ to swipe it from Obama and his legions of energized new voters? The same formula her husband used during his administration: bullshit. And what's the biggest load of bullshit out there being dished out by the Clinton campaign? Clinton won all the states that matter (i.e. bigger states and 'swing' states), meaning that only she can beat John McCain in November. This page finds this blend of fertilizer to be particularly porous, when one takes into account that:
-Unlike their Republican opponents, Democrats use proportional representation to pick their nominee. 14 of Clinton's 16 primary victories were by less than 20 points, meaning that Obama was still picking up 30 to 40 % of the delegates in places like California. By contrast, 21 of the 29 primaries won by Obama were by margins of 20% or more. Better to be a big fish in several smaller ponds around the country than a fish trying to find a sympathetic judge to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.
-Some of the big states (like Clinton' s 'home' state of New York) are solidly Democratic 'Blue' states and would go to pretty much any Democratic nominee in the general election. If Hillary Clinton is claiming momentum from winning those states, she may need some of those little blue pills her husband's been hiding from her.
-In any primary, the results will be skewed by whether its an open or closed primary. In an open primary, there's a chance for all kinds of hijinx, such as Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos. In a closed primary, Democrats are voting for Democrats, which is more than likely an exercise in marginal voter preference: they like vanilla, they like chocolate, they like one a little better than the other and if they're lucky they'll get some kind of frosty swirl on the same ticket. This page does not seriously believe that Clinton's supporters will all break for John McCain if Obama wins the nomination. As for those who might, the talking heads love to punctuate Clinton's hold on 'Reagan Democrats' in the Rust Belt states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania), but in the general election, who will these people go to? Hillary Clinton, or the happy-go-lucky 71 year old who wants to Give War a Chance? Which one reminds you more of Ronald Reagan? The answer is, come November, these aren't Clinton's people anyway.
There is nowhere to go for the Clinton campaign. Hillary either bows out or starts flailing wildly at whatever procedural buttons are handy (the Florida & Michigan delegates, superdelegates, recounts, etc.) - even if that means one of those buttons is the Big Red One that explodes all the positive energy generated by the campaign so far and leaves behind bitter fallout for the Democratic Party. Having seen enough departures from reality and common sense at the beginning (the Florida recount), and during (9/11, Iraq) the Bush Administration, it wouldn't surprise this page if the Democrats mark its end with some insanity of their own.
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