Hands off the panic button

The latest Strategic Council Poll: CPC 37, LPC 29, NDP 15, BQ 13 (47 en PQ), GPC 9
(sample 1500)

It appears that the BUSH (Big Ugly Scary Harper) administration is upon us. Over the past weekend (save for a couple of hours of listening to TWU war stories while waiting for Jack Layton to take the stage at the Hyatt) this page heard from a number of people about how the sky will be falling in two weeks. "Our health care system is as good as gone.", "If they're handing us over to the Americans, why don't we just move to the states?" "Only straight white males will have any rights in this country after January 23".

This page has some good news and bad news for these people. The bad news for Liberals (particularly those who haven't realized Pierre Trudeau has been dead for five years) is that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives will win a minority government on January 23. The Liberals continue to self-destruct and I don't think any mea culpa in tonight's debate can save Paul Martin at this point. The post-Gomery corruption charges have stuck in the court of public opinion, and the CPC has given the Liberals nothing to fear monger over during the campaign.

However, if you're a New Democrat, and you're willing to take a long view, there is a profound upside to the Conservative ascendancy. As the media line up to congratulate Prime Minister Harper, the question shifts from which party can stop Stephen Harper on January 23 to which party can best stand up to Stephen Harper in the House of Commons after January 23? If the numbers hold, the Liberals will be severely wounded and in search of a new leader. The Bloc Quebecois will be sizing up the Conservatives for Meech Lake/Charlottetown - style concessions, throwing Canada back into the all-or-nothing instability of the Mulroney era. Who's left to pick up the gauntlet and serve as the real opposition to the Conservative agenda?

That gauntlet may not even be that heavy, given that Harper's cabinet material looks like the remainder bin at Fanny's Fabrics. Stockwell Day? Jason Kenny? Myron Thompson? There are some real intellectual heavyweights...Geez...Even if they take a hit in the seat count because of Liberal fear-mongering, Layton and company could still make Question Period look like Crank Yankers or Da Ali G Show. Give it a few weeks, and Harper will be asking Keith Martin AND Belinda Stronach (assuming they dig themselves out from under the shift in momentum) if they might consider coming back to the Conservative side of the House.